Main
Heavyweight
Alistair Overeem vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik
·Capital One Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alistair Overeem
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
84%
16%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
40
Age
Δ 8y
32
48-19
Career record
Δ 1 pp
16-6
W2
Current streak
W3
16
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 5
Overeem: 74 sig / 2 TD ·
Rozenstruik: 89 sig / 0 TD
Alistair Overeem
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
26
Sig strikes landed
29
35
Sig strikes attempted
76
39
Total strikes landed
38
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.6
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.70
142s
Control time
56s
Method
Decision
6%
KO/TKO
89%
Submission
4%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Alistair Overeem
"The Demolition Man"
48-19
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
16 fights · 10-6
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—
L
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
L
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
Blue corner
W3
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
"Bigi Boy"
16-6
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—