Prelims1
Middleweight
Brad Tavares vs Edmen Shahbazyan
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brad Tavares
Edmen Shahbazyan
32%
68%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
32
Age
Δ 10y
22
21-14
Career record
Δ 17 pp
17-5
L1
Current streak
W3
17
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Tavares: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Shahbazyan: 14 sig / 0 TD
Brad Tavares
Edmen Shahbazyan
26
Sig strikes landed
32
51
Sig strikes attempted
73
37
Total strikes landed
50
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.5
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
69s
Control time
188s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Brad Tavares
21-14
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
17 fights · 12-5
Last 5
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Redemptio…
—
W
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
—
Blue corner
W3
Edmen Shahbazyan
"The Golden Boy"
17-5
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database
3 fights · 3-0
Last 3
W
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
W
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hit…
—