Prelims1
Featherweight
Shane Burgos vs Makwan Amirkhani
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Shane Burgos
Makwan Amirkhani
73%
27%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
16-3
Career record
Δ 18 pp
18-9
W2
Current streak
W2
6
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Burgos: 105 sig / 0 TD ·
Amirkhani: 22 sig / 3 TD
Shane Burgos
Makwan Amirkhani
46
Sig strikes landed
38
77
Sig strikes attempted
90
56
Total strikes landed
45
0.0
Takedowns landed
1.8
-0.3
Takedowns attempted
7.0
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
28s
Control time
164s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Shane Burgos
"Hurricane"
16-3
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
W
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
L
UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
Blue corner
W2
Makwan Amirkhani
"Mr. Finland"
18-9
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. And…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs…
—