Prelims1
Heavyweight
Andrei Arlovski vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Andrei Arlovski
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
40%
60%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
41
Age
Δ 9y
32
35-24
Career record
Δ 13 pp
16-6
W1
Current streak
W2
16
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Arlovski: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Rozenstruik: 5 sig / 0 TD
Andrei Arlovski
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
25
Sig strikes landed
33
51
Sig strikes attempted
74
32
Total strikes landed
40
0.2
Takedowns landed
0.2
1.2
Takedowns attempted
0.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.60
81s
Control time
80s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
61%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Andrei Arlovski
"The Pitbull"
35-24
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
41
In our database
16 fights · 7-8
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Olein…
—
L
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
W
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
Blue corner
W2
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
"Bigi Boy"
16-6
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
—