Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Kevin Lee
Gregor Gillespie
59%
41%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 6"
71"
27
Age
Δ 6y
33
18-9
Career record
Δ 27 pp
15-1
L2
Current streak
W6
15
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Lee: 21 sig / 0 TD ·
Gillespie: 9 sig / 0 TD
Kevin Lee
Gregor Gillespie
40
Sig strikes landed
38
89
Sig strikes attempted
75
59
Total strikes landed
61
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.9
1.8
Takedowns attempted
6.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
70s
Control time
248s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Kevin Lee
"The Motown Phenom"
18-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
15 fights · 10-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
L
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
Blue corner
W6
Gregor Gillespie
"The Gift"
15-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
6 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Dil…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
—
W
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—