Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Derrick Lewis
Blagoy Ivanov
65%
35%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 6"
73"
35
Age
Δ 2y
33
29-14
Career record
Δ 9 pp
20-6
L2
Current streak
W2
17
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Lewis: 31 sig / 1 TD ·
Ivanov: 20 sig / 3 TD
Derrick Lewis
Blagoy Ivanov
43
Sig strikes landed
43
104
Sig strikes attempted
110
50
Total strikes landed
59
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
78s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Derrick Lewis
"The Black Beast"
29-14
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
17 fights · 12-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
L
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
W
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—
Blue corner
W2
Blagoy Ivanov
"Baga"
20-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—