Prelims2
Women's Flyweight
Katlyn Cerminara vs Jennifer Maia
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Katlyn Cerminara
Jennifer Maia
57%
43%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
64"
31
Age
Δ 0y
31
19-6
Career record
Δ 9 pp
22-10-1
W1
Current streak
W2
7
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Cerminara: 73 sig / 0 TD ·
Maia: 58 sig / 1 TD
Katlyn Cerminara
Jennifer Maia
70
Sig strikes landed
65
187
Sig strikes attempted
169
90
Total strikes landed
82
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.4
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
66s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
86%
KO/TKO
9%
Submission
5%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Katlyn Cerminara
"Blonde Fighter"
19-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
L
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—
W
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
Blue corner
W2
Jennifer Maia
22-10-1
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—