Main
Welterweight
Stephen Thompson vs Vicente Luque
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz
·Madison Square Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Stephen Thompson
Vicente Luque
32%
68%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 0"
76"
37
Age
Δ 9y
28
17-10-1
Career record
Δ 5 pp
25-12-1
L2
Current streak
W6
14
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Thompson: 138 sig / 0 TD ·
Luque: 77 sig / 0 TD
Stephen Thompson
Vicente Luque
69
Sig strikes landed
67
137
Sig strikes attempted
149
69
Total strikes landed
73
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.5
1.8
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
59s
Control time
75s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Stephen Thompson
"Wonderboy"
17-10-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
14 fights · 9-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. T…
—
W
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—
L
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2
—
D
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
Blue corner
W6
Vicente Luque
"The Silent Assassin"
25-12-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
12 fights · 10-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
—
W
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—