Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Kelvin Gastelum
Darren Till
55%
45%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
74"
28
Age
Δ 1y
27
21-12
Career record
Δ 8 pp
18-6-1
L1
Current streak
L2
15
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Gastelum: 40 sig / 1 TD ·
Till: 36 sig / 1 TD
Kelvin Gastelum
Darren Till
46
Sig strikes landed
44
105
Sig strikes attempted
101
63
Total strikes landed
49
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.7
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
114s
Control time
72s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Kelvin Gastelum
21-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
15 fights · 10-4
Last 5
L
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
W
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC 206: Holloway vs. Pettis
—
Blue corner
L2
Darren Till
"The Gorilla"
18-6-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
8 fights · 5-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—
L
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Str…
—