Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jorge Masvidal
Nate Diaz
75%
25%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
35
Age
Δ 0y
34
36-17
Career record
Δ 4 pp
23-13
W2
Current streak
W1
17
UFC fights in our DB
16
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 3
Masvidal: 112 sig / 1 TD ·
Diaz: 43 sig / 0 TD
Jorge Masvidal
Nate Diaz
72
Sig strikes landed
69
150
Sig strikes attempted
140
83
Total strikes landed
87
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.7
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
126s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Jorge Masvidal
"Gamebred"
36-17
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
17 fights · 11-6
Last 5
W
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—
L
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—
L
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
—
Blue corner
W1
Nate Diaz
23-13
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
16 fights · 9-7
Last 5
W
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2
—
L
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—
W
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—