Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Yair Rodriguez
Jeremy Stephens
84%
16%
Why
71"
Reach
71"
27
Age
Δ 6y
33
21-6
Career record
Δ 22 pp
29-23
W1
Current streak
L2
9
UFC fights in our DB
23
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Rodriguez: 96 sig / 0 TD ·
Stephens: 50 sig / 3 TD
Yair Rodriguez
Jeremy Stephens
68
Sig strikes landed
53
146
Sig strikes attempted
132
85
Total strikes landed
59
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.3
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
62s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
5%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Yair Rodriguez
"El Pantera"
21-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
9 fights · 7-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—
L
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. …
—
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
Blue corner
L2
Jeremy Stephens
"Lil' Heathen"
29-23
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
23 fights · 11-11
Last 5
L
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Ste…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
—
W
UFC 215: Nunes vs Shevchenko 2
—