Main
Light Heavyweight
Dominick Reyes vs Chris Weidman
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman
·TD Garden
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Dominick Reyes
Chris Weidman
72%
28%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
30
Age
Δ 5y
35
17-5
Career record
Δ 13 pp
16-9
W5
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
14
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Reyes: 8 sig / 0 TD ·
Weidman: 3 sig / 1 TD
Dominick Reyes
Chris Weidman
46
Sig strikes landed
32
82
Sig strikes attempted
62
55
Total strikes landed
38
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.0
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
47s
Control time
128s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Dominick Reyes
"The Devastator"
17-5
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
77"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—
W
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman
—
W
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
Blue corner
L1
Chris Weidman
"The All-American"
16-9
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
14 fights · 10-4
Last 5
L
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
—
L
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor
—
L
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—