Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Matt Frevola
Luis Pena
41%
59%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
29
Age
Δ 3y
26
12-6-1
Career record
Δ 14 pp
10-3
W1
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Frevola: 48 sig / 4 TD ·
Pena: 51 sig / 1 TD
Matt Frevola
Luis Pena
23
Sig strikes landed
31
43
Sig strikes attempted
65
39
Total strikes landed
62
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.8
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
142s
Control time
217s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
23%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Matt Frevola
"The SteamRolla"
12-6-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 1-1
Last 3
W
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
D
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
—
Blue corner
W2
Luis Pena
"Violent Bob Ross"
10-3
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Korean Zombie …
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—