Main
Women's Strawweight
Mackenzie Dern vs Amanda Ribas
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson
·Amalie Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Mackenzie Dern
Amanda Ribas
65%
35%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 3"
66"
27
Age
Δ 0y
26
17-5
Career record
Δ 11 pp
14-7
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Dern: 20 sig / 0 TD ·
Ribas: 74 sig / 2 TD
Mackenzie Dern
Amanda Ribas
33
Sig strikes landed
28
75
Sig strikes attempted
73
52
Total strikes landed
47
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.7
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.00
151s
Control time
171s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
19%
Submission
39%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Mackenzie Dern
17-5
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
—
W
UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya
—
Blue corner
W1
Amanda Ribas
14-7
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
—