Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Marlon Vera
Andre Ewell
75%
25%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
27
Age
Δ 5y
32
24-12-1
Career record
Δ 2 pp
18-9
W4
Current streak
W1
12
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Vera: 80 sig / 0 TD ·
Ewell: 50 sig / 0 TD
Marlon Vera
Andre Ewell
45
Sig strikes landed
49
111
Sig strikes attempted
112
60
Total strikes landed
59
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.2
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
88s
Control time
15s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Marlon Vera
"Chito"
24-12-1
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
27
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
W
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponz…
—
W
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. An…
—
Blue corner
W1
Andre Ewell
"Mr. Highlight"
18-9
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Th…
—
L
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—