Back to UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson
Prelims1 Welterweight

Miguel Baeza vs Hector Aldana

UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson ·Amalie Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Miguel Baeza
Hector Aldana
74% 26%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
27
Age
Δ 4y
31
—
Current streak
L2
0
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Baeza: 35 sig / 1 TD · Aldana: 8 sig / 0 TD
Miguel Baeza
Hector Aldana
50
Sig strikes landed
37
119
Sig strikes attempted
90
75
Total strikes landed
48
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
144s
Control time
64s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
21%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Miguel Baeza

"Caramel Thunder"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
L2

Hector Aldana

4-4
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
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