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Prelims1 Lightweight

Mike Davis vs Thomas Gifford

UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson ·Amalie Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Mike Davis
Thomas Gifford
62% 38%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 3"
76"
27
Age
Δ 0y
27
12-4
Career record
Δ 17 pp
14-10
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Davis: 139 sig / 2 TD · Gifford: 88 sig / 0 TD
Mike Davis
Thomas Gifford
29
Sig strikes landed
35
68
Sig strikes attempted
74
48
Total strikes landed
55
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.1
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
131s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
27%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Mike Davis

"Beast Boy"
12-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
Blue corner
L1

Thomas Gifford

"The Young Lion"
14-10 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—