Prelims1
Light Heavyweight
Ryan Spann vs Devin Clark
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson
·Amalie Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ryan Spann
Devin Clark
78%
22%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
28
Age
Δ 1y
30
25-11
Career record
Δ 7 pp
15-9
W2
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Spann: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Clark: 17 sig / 2 TD
Ryan Spann
Devin Clark
33
Sig strikes landed
23
69
Sig strikes attempted
50
51
Total strikes landed
45
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.6
Takedowns attempted
4.5
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
145s
Control time
132s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Ryan Spann
"Superman"
25-11
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
Blue corner
W1
Devin Clark
"Brown Bear"
15-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
L
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—