Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Cub Swanson
Kron Gracie
81%
19%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
36
Age
Δ 5y
31
31-15
Career record
Δ 1 pp
6-3
L4
Current streak
W1
17
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Swanson: 135 sig / 0 TD ·
Gracie: 86 sig / 0 TD
Cub Swanson
Kron Gracie
79
Sig strikes landed
41
138
Sig strikes attempted
102
95
Total strikes landed
58
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.6
0.8
Takedowns attempted
5.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
83s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L4
Cub Swanson
31-15
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
17 fights · 10-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
L
UFC 227: Dillashaw vs. Garbrand…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Or…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
Blue corner
W1
Kron Gracie
6-3
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Ve…
—