Main
Women's Strawweight
Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs Michelle Waterson-Gomez
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson
·Amalie Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
75%
25%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
62"
32
Age
Δ 2y
34
16-6
Career record
Δ 13 pp
19-13
L1
Current streak
W3
12
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Jedrzejczyk: 180 sig / 3 TD ·
Waterson-Gomez: 58 sig / 1 TD
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
133
Sig strikes landed
80
248
Sig strikes attempted
171
160
Total strikes landed
99
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.4
Takedowns attempted
5.9
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
105s
Control time
198s
Method
Decision
78%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
16-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
12 fights · 9-3
Last 5
L
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Po…
—
L
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
L
UFC 217: Bisping vs. St-Pierre
—
W
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
—
Blue corner
W3
Michelle Waterson-Gomez
"The Karate Hottie"
19-13
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Ga…
—
W
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
L
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—