Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jake Matthews
Rostem Akman
82%
18%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
72"
25
Age
Δ 3y
28
23-9
Career record
Δ 5 pp
6-3
L1
Current streak
L1
11
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Matthews: 59 sig / 0 TD ·
Akman: 15 sig / 0 TD
Jake Matthews
Rostem Akman
47
Sig strikes landed
29
90
Sig strikes attempted
70
69
Total strikes landed
43
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.3
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
187s
Control time
118s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jake Matthews
"The Celtic Kid"
23-9
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edw…
—
W
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
Blue corner
L1
Rostem Akman
6-3
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—