Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Justin Tafa
Yorgan De Castro
66%
34%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
26
Age
Δ 7y
33
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Tafa: 6 sig / 0 TD ·
De Castro: 4 sig / 0 TD
Justin Tafa
Yorgan De Castro
35
Sig strikes landed
31
71
Sig strikes attempted
60
50
Total strikes landed
46
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.5
0.9
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
120s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
62%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Justin Tafa
"Bad Man"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26
Blue corner
Yorgan De Castro
"The Mad Titan"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33