Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Al Iaquinta
Dan Hooker
41%
59%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 5"
75"
32
Age
Δ 3y
30
14-8-1
Career record
Δ 3 pp
25-14
L1
Current streak
W1
13
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Iaquinta: 37 sig / 0 TD ·
Hooker: 98 sig / 0 TD
Al Iaquinta
Dan Hooker
63
Sig strikes landed
66
132
Sig strikes attempted
151
67
Total strikes landed
73
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
80s
Control time
64s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Al Iaquinta
"Raging"
14-8-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
13 fights · 9-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
L
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
Blue corner
W1
Dan Hooker
"The Hangman"
25-14
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
W
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
W
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—