🏆 Title fight
Main
Middleweight
Robert Whittaker vs Israel Adesanya
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya
·Marvel Stadium
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Robert Whittaker
Israel Adesanya
59%
41%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 6"
80"
29
Age
Δ 1y
30
28-9
Career record
Δ 5 pp
25-6
W8
Current streak
W6
13
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Whittaker: 32 sig / 0 TD ·
Adesanya: 40 sig / 0 TD
Robert Whittaker
Israel Adesanya
64
Sig strikes landed
76
184
Sig strikes attempted
176
76
Total strikes landed
78
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.6
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.50
69s
Control time
39s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
6%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W8
Robert Whittaker
"The Reaper"
28-9
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
13 fights · 11-2
Last 5
W
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
W
UFC 213: Romero vs. Whittaker
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. …
—
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
Blue corner
W6
Israel Adesanya
"The Last Stylebender"
25-6
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
80"
Stance
Switch
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2
—
W
UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva
—
W
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—