Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Tai Tuivasa
Serghei Spivac
44%
56%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 3"
78"
27
Age
Δ 2y
25
15-11
Career record
Δ 14 pp
18-7
L2
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Tuivasa: 21 sig / 0 TD ·
Spivac: 23 sig / 6 TD
Tai Tuivasa
Serghei Spivac
31
Sig strikes landed
40
60
Sig strikes attempted
79
45
Total strikes landed
42
0.2
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.0
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
71s
Control time
85s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
56%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Tai Tuivasa
"Bam Bam"
15-11
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
—
W
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
W
UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
Blue corner
L1
Serghei Spivac
"Polar Bear"
18-7
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—