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Mark Madsen vs Danilo Belluardo

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier ·Royal Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Mark Madsen
Danilo Belluardo
50% 50%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
35
Age
Δ 10y
25
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Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Madsen: 22 sig / 1 TD · Belluardo: 0 sig / 0 TD
Mark Madsen
Danilo Belluardo
24
Sig strikes landed
23
34
Sig strikes attempted
48
50
Total strikes landed
40
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.8
3.1
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
148s
Control time
191s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
28%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Mark Madsen

"The Olympian"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
Blue corner
L1

Danilo Belluardo

"Caterpillar"
12-6
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
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