Main
Welterweight
Gunnar Nelson vs Gilbert Burns
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier
·Royal Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Gunnar Nelson
Gilbert Burns
61%
39%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
31
Age
Δ 2y
33
19-7-1
Career record
Δ 1 pp
23-10
L1
Current streak
W3
12
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Nelson: 20 sig / 0 TD ·
Burns: 30 sig / 1 TD
Gunnar Nelson
Gilbert Burns
31
Sig strikes landed
29
58
Sig strikes attempted
68
46
Total strikes landed
48
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.2
3.2
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
159s
Control time
147s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Gunnar Nelson
"Gunni"
19-7-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
31
In our database
12 fights · 8-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvi…
—
W
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs. Pon…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Manuwa vs. And…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
Blue corner
W3
Gilbert Burns
"Durinho"
23-10
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
12 fights · 9-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs.…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
W
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
L
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—