Back to UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier
Main Welterweight

Nicolas Dalby vs Alex Oliveira

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier ·Royal Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Nicolas Dalby
Alex Oliveira
65% 35%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
35
Age
Δ 3y
32
24-7-1
Career record
Δ 14 pp
22-13-1
L2
Current streak
L2
4
UFC fights in our DB
15

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Dalby: 31 sig / 1 TD · Oliveira: 18 sig / 3 TD
Nicolas Dalby
Alex Oliveira
37
Sig strikes landed
42
89
Sig strikes attempted
90
58
Total strikes landed
65
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.6
3.2
Takedowns attempted
4.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
144s
Control time
207s
Method
Decision
62%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Nicolas Dalby

"Lokomotivo"
24-7-1 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 4 fights · 1-2
Last 4
L UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. B…
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L UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
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D UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smo…
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W UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
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Blue corner
L2

Alex Oliveira

"Cowboy"
22-13-1 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 15 fights · 9-5
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
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L UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
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W UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
—
L UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
—