Back to UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens
Prelims1 Women's Strawweight

Ariane Carnelossi vs Angela Hill

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens ·Arena CDMX
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Ariane Carnelossi
Angela Hill
81% 19%
Why
62"
Reach
Δ 3"
64"
27
Age
Δ 8y
35
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
11

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · Round 3
Carnelossi: 72 sig / 0 TD · Hill: 92 sig / 0 TD
Ariane Carnelossi
Angela Hill
59
Sig strikes landed
59
147
Sig strikes attempted
114
82
Total strikes landed
79
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.0
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
159s
Control time
82s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Ariane Carnelossi

"Sorriso"
0-0
Career record
Height
62"
Reach
62"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
Blue corner
L1

Angela Hill

"Overkill"
19-17
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
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