Back to UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens
Prelims1 Featherweight

Marco Polo Reyes vs Kyle Nelson

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens ·Arena CDMX
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Marco Polo Reyes
Kyle Nelson
27% 73%
Why
71"
Reach
71"
35
Age
Δ 6y
28
8-8
Career record
Δ 15 pp
17-8-1
L2
Current streak
L2
7
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Reyes: 6 sig / 0 TD · Nelson: 12 sig / 0 TD
Marco Polo Reyes
Kyle Nelson
35
Sig strikes landed
38
82
Sig strikes attempted
88
42
Total strikes landed
52
0.3
Takedowns landed
1.5
0.9
Takedowns attempted
3.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
42s
Control time
175s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Marco Polo Reyes

8-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Do…
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L UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs.…
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W UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. C…
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L UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos
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W UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
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Blue corner
L2

Kyle Nelson

"The Monster"
17-8-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
L UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
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