Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Desmond Torres
Steve Garcia
42%
58%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 6"
75"
23
Age
Δ 5y
27
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Torres: 22 sig / 0 TD ·
Garcia: 54 sig / 0 TD
Desmond Torres
Steve Garcia
30
Sig strikes landed
41
62
Sig strikes attempted
81
44
Total strikes landed
57
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
100s
Control time
162s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Desmond Torres
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
Blue corner
Steve Garcia
"Mean Machine"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
27