Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Marcos Brigagao
Jamal Pogues
67%
33%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 1"
77"
23
Age
Δ 0y
24
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Brigagao: 46 sig / 0 TD ·
Pogues: 49 sig / 7 TD
Marcos Brigagao
Jamal Pogues
34
Sig strikes landed
34
70
Sig strikes attempted
70
53
Total strikes landed
51
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
147s
Control time
94s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Marcos Brigagao
"Ironside"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
23
Blue corner
Jamal Pogues
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24