Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Ray Rodriguez
Tony Gravely
38%
62%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
32
Age
Δ 4y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Rodriguez: 15 sig / 1 TD ·
Gravely: 73 sig / 3 TD
Ray Rodriguez
Tony Gravely
35
Sig strikes landed
40
79
Sig strikes attempted
81
48
Total strikes landed
56
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
103s
Control time
127s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Ray Rodriguez
"The Judge"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
Blue corner
Tony Gravely
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28