Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Sarah Alpar
Shanna Young
58%
42%
Why
63"
Reach
Δ 2"
65"
28
Age
Δ 0y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Alpar: 35 sig / 2 TD ·
Young: 30 sig / 0 TD
Sarah Alpar
Shanna Young
34
Sig strikes landed
36
68
Sig strikes attempted
79
65
Total strikes landed
66
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.3
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
173s
Control time
154s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Sarah Alpar
"Too Sweet"
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
63"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
Blue corner
Shanna Young
"The Shanimal"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29