Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Devin Smyth
Brok Weaver
52%
48%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
24
Age
Δ 4y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Smyth: 39 sig / 4 TD ·
Weaver: 101 sig / 0 TD
Devin Smyth
Brok Weaver
30
Sig strikes landed
33
66
Sig strikes attempted
72
36
Total strikes landed
48
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.2
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.40
93s
Control time
161s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Devin Smyth
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
24
Blue corner
Brok Weaver
"Chata Tuska"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28