Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Herdem Alacabek
William Knight
59%
41%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
28
Age
Δ 3y
31
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Alacabek: 56 sig / 2 TD ·
Knight: 97 sig / 4 TD
Herdem Alacabek
William Knight
35
Sig strikes landed
33
76
Sig strikes attempted
65
47
Total strikes landed
51
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.5
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
118s
Control time
127s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
51%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Herdem Alacabek
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner
William Knight
"Knightmare"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31