Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Brad Katona
Hunter Azure
64%
36%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 4"
69"
28
Age
Δ 0y
28
L1
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Katona: 21 sig / 3 TD ·
Azure: 41 sig / 0 TD
Brad Katona
Hunter Azure
50
Sig strikes landed
39
89
Sig strikes attempted
87
73
Total strikes landed
56
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.1
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
204s
Control time
90s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Brad Katona
"Superman"
16-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
W
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeate…
—
Blue corner
Hunter Azure
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28