Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Cole Smith
Miles Johns
36%
64%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
30
Age
Δ 5y
26
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Smith: 11 sig / 1 TD ·
Johns: 31 sig / 1 TD
Cole Smith
Miles Johns
33
Sig strikes landed
39
79
Sig strikes attempted
74
52
Total strikes landed
61
1.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
4.5
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
151s
Control time
157s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Cole Smith
"The Cole Train"
8-2
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
—
Blue corner
Miles Johns
"Chapo"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26