Back to UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje
Prelims1 Heavyweight

Marcin Tybura vs Augusto Sakai

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje ·Rogers Arena
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Marcin Tybura
Augusto Sakai
59% 41%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 1"
77"
34
Age
Δ 5y
28
27-12
Career record
Δ 5 pp
17-5-1
L1
Current streak
W2
8
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Tybura: 6 sig / 0 TD · Sakai: 15 sig / 0 TD
Marcin Tybura
Augusto Sakai
53
Sig strikes landed
54
130
Sig strikes attempted
128
75
Total strikes landed
76
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.7
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
141s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
10%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Marcin Tybura

"Tybur"
27-12
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database 8 fights · 4-4
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Ol…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Me…
—
L UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tyb…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Corre…
—
Blue corner
W2

Augusto Sakai

17-5-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. An…
—