Prelims1
Bantamweight
Louis Smolka vs Ryan MacDonald
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje
·Rogers Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Louis Smolka
Ryan MacDonald
57%
43%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 2"
71"
28
Age
Δ 2y
26
17-10
Career record
Δ 14 pp
10-3
L1
Current streak
L1
12
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Smolka: 59 sig / 0 TD ·
MacDonald: 30 sig / 0 TD
Louis Smolka
Ryan MacDonald
48
Sig strikes landed
36
78
Sig strikes attempted
83
67
Total strikes landed
52
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
3.7
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
220s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
41%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Louis Smolka
"Da Last Samurai"
17-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
12 fights · 6-6
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ng…
—
L
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Reis
—
L
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey
—
Blue corner
L1
Ryan MacDonald
"Main Event"
10-3
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
27
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—