Back to UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje
Prelims1 Lightweight

Kyle Prepolec vs Austin Hubbard

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje ·Rogers Arena
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Kyle Prepolec
Austin Hubbard
54% 46%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
30
Age
Δ 2y
28
18-11
Career record
Δ 1 pp
17-11
L1
Current streak
L1
1
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Prepolec: 44 sig / 0 TD · Hubbard: 51 sig / 3 TD
Kyle Prepolec
Austin Hubbard
56
Sig strikes landed
54
133
Sig strikes attempted
135
68
Total strikes landed
65
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.1
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
82s
Control time
102s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Kyle Prepolec

"Killshot"
18-11
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. C…
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Blue corner
L1

Austin Hubbard

"Thud"
17-11
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
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