Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Todd Duffee
Jeff Hughes
54%
46%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 1"
77"
34
Age
Δ 2y
31
9-4
Career record
Δ 3 pp
10-5
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Could Not Continue · Round 1
Duffee: 30 sig / 1 TD ·
Hughes: 16 sig / 0 TD
Todd Duffee
Jeff Hughes
45
Sig strikes landed
37
109
Sig strikes attempted
73
63
Total strikes landed
57
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.5
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
85s
Control time
95s
Method
Decision
34%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
10%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Todd Duffee
9-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—
W
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
W
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
L
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
—
Blue corner
L1
Jeff Hughes
"Lights Out"
10-5
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—