Back to UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje
Main Welterweight

Michel Pereira vs Tristan Connelly

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje ·Rogers Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Michel Pereira
Tristan Connelly
89% 11%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 5"
68"
26
Age
Δ 8y
34
W1
Current streak
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1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pereira: 32 sig / 2 TD · Connelly: 64 sig / 0 TD
Michel Pereira
Tristan Connelly
33
Sig strikes landed
17
81
Sig strikes attempted
32
43
Total strikes landed
24
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.9
0.5
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.00
49s
Control time
128s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
52%
Submission
20%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Michel Pereira

"Demolidor"
33-14 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. …
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Blue corner

Tristan Connelly

"Boondock"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34