Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jim Miller
Clay Guida
67%
33%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
36
Age
Δ 2y
38
40-19
Career record
Δ 4 pp
39-22
W1
Current streak
W1
27
UFC fights in our DB
17
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Miller: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Guida: 2 sig / 0 TD
Jim Miller
Clay Guida
33
Sig strikes landed
22
72
Sig strikes attempted
79
47
Total strikes landed
43
0.4
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.2
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.00
43s
Control time
183s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
39%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jim Miller
"A-10"
40-19
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database
27 fights · 15-11
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
W
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
Blue corner
W1
Clay Guida
"The Carpenter"
39-22
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
17 fights · 10-7
Last 5
W
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade
—
L
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pe…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee
—
L
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2
—