Back to UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler
Main Welterweight

Colby Covington vs Robbie Lawler

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler ·Prudential Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Colby Covington
Robbie Lawler
68% 32%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
31
Age
Δ 6y
37
18-5
Career record
Δ 14 pp
30-17
W6
Current streak
L2
10
UFC fights in our DB
13

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Covington: 179 sig / 10 TD · Lawler: 78 sig / 0 TD
Colby Covington
Robbie Lawler
74
Sig strikes landed
65
241
Sig strikes attempted
127
108
Total strikes landed
73
5.7
Takedowns landed
0.1
12.1
Takedowns attempted
-0.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
437s
Control time
-3s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
11%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W6

Colby Covington

"Chaos"
18-5
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 10 fights · 9-1
Last 5
W UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2
—
W UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Ma…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Corre…
—
W UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
—
W UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
—
Blue corner
L2

Robbie Lawler

"Ruthless"
30-17 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
37
In our database 13 fights · 9-4
Last 5
L UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith
—
L UFC Fight Night: Lawler vs. Dos…
—
W UFC 214: Cormier vs. Jones 2
—
L UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
—
W UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—