Main
Lightweight
Joaquim Silva vs Nasrat Haqparast
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler
·Prudential Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Joaquim Silva
Nasrat Haqparast
40%
60%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
30
Age
Δ 7y
24
15-6
Career record
Δ 5 pp
19-6
W1
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Silva: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
Haqparast: 21 sig / 0 TD
Joaquim Silva
Nasrat Haqparast
53
Sig strikes landed
61
138
Sig strikes attempted
140
65
Total strikes landed
71
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.5
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
76s
Control time
63s
Method
Decision
66%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
4%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Joaquim Silva
"Netto BJJ"
15-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquin…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs.…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
W
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
Blue corner
W2
Nasrat Haqparast
19-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
24
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. S…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Ti…
—