Back to UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler
Prelims1 Women's Flyweight

Lauren Murphy vs Mara Romero Borella

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler ·Prudential Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Lauren Murphy
Mara Romero Borella
66% 34%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
36
Age
Δ 3y
33
16-8
Career record
Δ 8 pp
13-9
L1
Current streak
W1
6
UFC fights in our DB
3

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Murphy: 24 sig / 0 TD · Romero Borella: 22 sig / 1 TD
Lauren Murphy
Mara Romero Borella
53
Sig strikes landed
48
124
Sig strikes attempted
122
77
Total strikes landed
80
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.3
3.7
Takedowns attempted
4.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
209s
Control time
151s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
15%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Lauren Murphy

"Lucky"
16-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database 6 fights · 2-4
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Mor…
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W The Ultimate Fighter: A New Wor…
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L UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. L…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
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L UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
Blue corner
W1

Mara Romero Borella

13-9 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. M…
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L UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Bru…
—
W UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
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