Prelims1
Flyweight
Jordan Espinosa vs Matt Schnell
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler
·Prudential Center
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Jordan Espinosa
Matt Schnell
55%
45%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 0"
70"
30
Age
Δ 0y
30
16-9
Career record
Δ 0 pp
18-10
W1
Current streak
W3
1
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Espinosa: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Schnell: 3 sig / 0 TD
Jordan Espinosa
Matt Schnell
40
Sig strikes landed
40
82
Sig strikes attempted
104
48
Total strikes landed
44
0.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
46s
Control time
78s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jordan Espinosa
"The Gamer"
16-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. P…
—
Blue corner
W3
Matt Schnell
"Danger"
18-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos …
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edw…
—
W
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lo…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournamen…
—