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Prelims1 Welterweight

Gilbert Burns vs Aleksei Kunchenko

Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Gilbert Burns
Aleksei Kunchenko
49% 51%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 1"
70"
33
Age
Δ 2y
35
23-10
Career record
Δ 22 pp
21-2
W2
Current streak
W2
11
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Burns: 42 sig / 3 TD · Kunchenko: 47 sig / 0 TD
Gilbert Burns
Aleksei Kunchenko
42
Sig strikes landed
48
116
Sig strikes attempted
113
54
Total strikes landed
74
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.3
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
130s
Control time
87s
Method
Decision
77%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
9%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Gilbert Burns

"Durinho"
23-10
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
W UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Her…
W UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega
L UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier
W UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Ga…
W UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. B…
Blue corner
W2

Aleksei Kunchenko

21-2
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs.…
W UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Olein…