Back to UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2
Prelims1 Heavyweight

Ciryl Gane vs Raphael Pessoa

UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 ·Antel Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Ciryl Gane
Raphael Pessoa
67% 33%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 3"
78"
29
Age
Δ 1y
30

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Gane: 15 sig / 0 TD · Pessoa: 7 sig / 0 TD
Ciryl Gane
Raphael Pessoa
38
Sig strikes landed
33
73
Sig strikes attempted
64
56
Total strikes landed
48
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.8
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
146s
Control time
98s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Ciryl Gane

"Bon Gamin"
0-0
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
Blue corner

Raphael Pessoa

"Bebezao"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30